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How Trump's oil-friendly policies may be speeding up the global shift to clean energy
Tariffs, an Iran war, and oil price spikes are pushing countries toward renewables faster than many expected.
Donald Trump ran in 2024 on a promise to champion the oil industry at every turn. His signature slogan was 'Drill, baby, drill.' But the policies he has pursued since returning to the White House - steep tariffs on China, and a war with Iran that began in February - have, in some measurable ways, done the opposite of what oil producers might have hoped for.
They have made fossil fuels more expensive and less reliable, and pushed countries around the world to look harder at alternatives.
The economics behind the shift
Kingsmill Bond, director of the global energy think-tank Ember, puts it plainly: 'This is Economics 101. If you increase the price of a good and make it riskier, then you will drive people to search for alternatives. That's exactly what's been happening.'
The numbers back that up. When Iran responded to U.S.-Israeli attacks in February by blocking roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices climbed to nearly $120 US a barrel. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described it as 'the second fossil fuel crisis in just a few years,' drawing a direct comparison to the disruption caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. 'We are paying a very high price for our overdependency on fossil fuels,' she said.
The first crisis accelerated European investment in renewables. This one appears to be doing the same across Asia and beyond.
Electric vehicles and solar surging
The International Energy Agency reported last month that global electric vehicle sales rebounded in the second quarter of 2026, even as overall car sales fell. Chinese EV exports - China is the world's largest EV producer - rose sharply between the spring of 2025 and spring of 2026: up 117 per cent to Brazil, 127 per cent to South Korea, 175 per cent to Australia, and 220 per cent to Italy, according to Ember data.
Solar is seeing similar momentum. The U.K.'s largest energy supplier reported a 50 per cent year-over-year jump in solar panel sales earlier this year. In Asia, higher energy costs have driven a spike in rooftop solar installations. Thailand has moved toward solar to offset rising natural gas prices. The Philippines declared an energy emergency shortly after the Iran conflict began and signed executive orders to speed up grid connections and accelerate clean energy projects.
'EVs and batteries and solar panels are flying out the door, because people want an alternative,' Bond said.
Where Canada fits in
Canada is navigating its own version of this tension. The federal government is pushing to expand pipeline investment while simultaneously announcing a nuclear strategy aimed at doubling the electrical grid's capacity by 2050. That dual approach reflects the broader challenge facing many countries: existing fossil fuel infrastructure is deeply embedded in the economy, but the price signals from global oil markets are making the case for diversification harder to ignore.
The energy transition was already underway before any of this. Ember's review of 2025 found that renewables produced more than one-third of global electricity generation, overtaking coal power for the first time in roughly 100 years. The Iran war did not start the shift - it accelerated it.
An unintended consequence
Trump's administration set out to strengthen the oil industry's hand. The tariffs were designed to pressure trade partners; the Iran conflict had its own stated objectives. Whether either achieved those goals is a separate question. But the side effect - higher and less stable oil prices - has given governments, businesses, and consumers around the world a concrete financial reason to move faster on clean energy than they might have otherwise.
The irony is not lost on energy analysts. Bond's point is simple: price shocks do not need policy intent to change behaviour. They just need to hurt enough.